Productivity growth is the key mechanism that allows the U.S. economy to expand above its long ‑ run trend without reigniting inflation. Recent data show U.S. nonfarm business productivity rising 4.9% in Q3 2025, a surge strong enough to counter in

Key Talking Points:

• The bad news is that recent revisions have been largely to the downside. The good news is investors have alternative data sources.

• Unemployment in August rose to 4.3% from 4.2% the previous month. Thi

For decades, retirement savers had a fairly simple menu: stocks, bonds, and a few target date funds that combined the two in different proportions. Alternatives, such as hedge funds, private credit, and private equity, were not even an option unless

As we mentioned in our recent Midyear 2025 Outlook: Pragmatic Optimism, Measured Expectations, we expect bond market action to continue to swing between concerns over slowing economic data (lower yields) and larger debt/deficit dynamics (higher yields

GLP-1s (such as Ozempic and Wegovy) are revolutionary drugs that help patients control diabetes and lose weight by slowing the pace of digestion and increasing how full patients feel after eating. Despite GLP-1 manufacturers underperforming since mid

July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed headline year-over-year inflation remained steady at 2.7%, below the anticipated level of 2.8%. Core inflation, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices, rose to 3.1% from a prior 2.9%,

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded over the last month following its worst first half since its inception in 1973. Progress on trade negotiations, a patient higher-for-longer Federal Reserve (Fed), better-than-expected economic data (up until

Peak week for second quarter earnings season is well underway as nearly 40% of the S&P 500, measured by market capitalization, report quarterly results this week. While big tech and the Magnificent Seven will unequivocally remain in the earnings

The privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the dominant government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) in the U.S. mortgage market, would transform housing finance, even with explicit government backing ensuring their stability. Privatizing them as fu

In classic Washington style, Congress pushed the limits of drama and delay, passing a sweeping reconciliation bill just hours before President Donald Trump’s self-imposed July 4, 2025 deadline. After intense negotiations, squabbles within the R