Leading Indicators Signal Growth Ahead
U.S. leading indicators rebounded in July, a good sign for the durability of the expansion.
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 0.5% month over month, the biggest gain since September 2018, and above consensus expectations for a 0.3% increase. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, Leading Indicators Slowing But Growing, the LEI climbed 1.6% year over year.
The LEI, which we include as one of the “Five Forecasters” of our Recession Watch Dashboard, has yet to turn negative this cycle. The index has fallen negative year over year before all nine recessions since 1955... Read more