What Mideast Escalation Means for Markets
The U.S. airstrike that killed the top Iranian military commander last week was a major escalation in Mideast tensions.
In fact, it would be difficult to overstate the geopolitical significance of this action. Iran likely will retaliate, possibly with attacks on American military personnel overseas.
We cannot dismiss the risk that the situation may escalate further into a broader conflict. However, from a markets perspective, we want to be careful not to overstate the potential impact. History shows that stocks have largely shrugged off past geopolitical conflicts. We looked at significant geopolitical events dating back to 1990 and found that the Dow Jones Industrials Average has fallen an average of only 2% during 16 major geopolitical events, including the Gulf War, Iraq War, and 9/11. Over the subsequent 3 and 6 months, the Dow rose 88% of the time, with average gains of 5% and 7.9%, respectively.
A review of 20 major geopolitical events dating all the way back to World War II showed stocks had fully recovered losses within an average of 47 trading days after an average maximum drawdown of 5%, according to a CFRA study.
“As serious as this escalation is, previous experiences have indicated it may be unlikely to have a material impact on U.S. economic fundamentals or corporate profits,” said LPL Financial Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “We would not be sellers of stocks into weakness related to this event, given stocks have weathered heightened geopolitical tensions in the past.”
Oil prices have jumped on the Iran headlines due to the significant production at risk in the region. We do not expect oil to climb significantly from current levels based on the muted reaction to the Saudi production disruption in September 2019 and significant U.S. shale resources. However, energy markets bear watching given the potential impact of higher energy costs on consumer and business spending.
While heightened geopolitical uncertainty can be unsettling for investors, we will continue to focus on the fundamentals supporting gross domestic product, inflation, employment, interest rates, and corporate profits when making investment decisions.
- Important Disclosures
- The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual security. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial professional prior to investing. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted.
- All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
- Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments.
- This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.
- Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial (LPL), a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer (Member FINRA/SIPC). Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates. To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered investment advisor, please note that LPL is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.
- If your advisor is located at a bank or credit union, please note that the bank/credit union is not registered as a broker-dealer or investment advisor. Registered representatives of LPL may also be employees of the bank/credit union. These products and services are being offered through LPL or its affiliates, which are separate entities from, and not affiliates of, the bank/credit union. Securities and insurance offered through LPL or its affiliates are:
- Not insured by FDIC or NCUA/NCUSIF or Any Other Government Agency | Not Bank/Credit Union Guarantee | Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations| May Lose Value
- Member FINRA/SIPC
- Tracking #1-933991