The incredible rally off the March 23 lows continues for equities, with the S&P 500 Index now up more than 32% in 40 trading days. As impressive as the rally has been, we do have some near-term concerns, as we discussed in Downside Risk Remains. Higher valuations, US-/China relations, weakening technicals, and the historically troublesome summer months all could play a part in potential weakness after the record run.

“In 40 trading days, the S&P 500 gained 32%, which is second only to the 40 days off the March 2009 lows,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Looking back at hist

There’re plenty of people who think negative interest rates are a good policy. But we don’t really think so at the Federal Reserve. And I think it’s an area of real uncertainty in the central banking world.

-Fed Chair Jerome Powell, 60 Minutes interview, 5/13/20

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has unleashed a wide range of policy moves to support the economy and keep financial markets running smoothly in the face of COVID-19 related economic weakness. In a series of speeches last week, culminating in Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s appearance on 60 Minutes on Sunday evening, May 19 (recorded on May 13), Fed

Stocks fell last week, and many blamed the drop on high stock valuations, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s gloomy outlook, and rising US-China tensions. Perhaps investors also are increasingly skeptical about prospects for a smooth V-shaped recovery. Regardless, stocks may have been due for a pullback after gains in late March through April and could potentially have further to fall.

Three Big Stories

We think the three biggest stories for investors in the last week were: 1) elevated stock market valuations, 2) Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s gloomy outlook, and 3) rising US-China tensions.&nb

As the economic data continues to pile in, much of it is showing some of the largest drops ever. Not surprisingly, small businesses are also suffering, as the NFIB Small Business Survey for April dropped significantly for the second consecutive month, but there were some silver linings. For starters, it wasn’t anywhere near as low as it was during the financial crisis; also, it came in better than what economists expected and didn’t drop as much as it did the previous month.

“The bedrock of the US economy is small businesses, as they employ about half of the US workforce,” explained LPL Financial Chief Inv