6.20.24 How Low Can Volatility Go
Key Takeaways
• Equity markets are enjoying a backdrop of extremely low volatility, supported by decelerating inflation, the prospect of less restrictive monetary policy, enthusiasm over artificial intelligence, and resilient corporate earnings and economic growth.
• Periods of low implied volatility have historically produced above-average equity market returns. Since 1990, the S&P 500 has generated six- and 12-month respective returns of 8.8% and 13.6% after the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed within its first quintile group (below 13.21).
• However, seasonal VIX trends and rising expectations for in
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