With several high-profile initial public offerings (IPOs) expected in 2026, many investors may be wondering whether buying a stock on its first day of trading is a smart move. Historically, stock performance in the first year post-IPO has been a mixed bag of volatility, with a large minority delivering excess returns in their first year of trading, while a slight majority deliver negative returns. In today’s blog, we analyze data on 30 years of selected IPOs and highlight some recent changes that will likely impact some of the coming year’s largest expected new issues.

Starting with the data, we pulled IPOs from the l

Kevin Warsh's bid to become the next chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unfolded amid sharp political tension, legal uncertainty, and pointed questions about his independence from President Trump. During a combative Senate confirmation hearing, Warsh sought to reassure lawmakers that he would not allow political pressure to dictate monetary policy, even as unresolved Justice Department investigation into current Chair Jerome Powell threatens to delay his confirmation and underscores broader concerns about the politicization of the central bank.

Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing comes at a moment when U.S

Concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy have moved back into the investment spotlight. Over the past week, both multilateral institutions and prominent policymakers have raised warnings about the potential implications of America’s expanding debt burden for Treasury markets. While these concerns are directionally valid, we believe recent calls suggesting a structural loss of appeal for U.S. Treasuries are premature and risk overstating near-term risks.

Rising Debt Issuance and the IMF’s Warning

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cautioned last week that the accelerating pace of U.S. Treasury is

As we wrote in our recent Rate and Credit View, the case for global bonds has strengthened as the structure of fixed income markets — and the sources of risk within them — have become increasingly asymmetric. The U.S. bond market represents less than half of global fixed income outstanding, yet many portfolios remain overwhelmingly concentrated in U.S. Treasuries and credit, effectively tying outcomes to a single fiscal authority, a single central bank, and domestic yield curves. Expanding beyond U.S. borders meaningfully enlarges the opportunity set. Non ‑ U.S. developed markets and emerging economies operate under differentiat