In our 2026 Outlook: The Policy Engine, we listed several risks to stocks that could prevent the S&P 500 from achieving our forecast for high-single-digit returns in 2026 (to a fair value target range of 7,300–7,400). One was narrow stock market leadership. Well, as mega cap technology leadership faded in recent months, the cyclicals and defensives picked up the slack. The traditional market-cap-weighted S&P 500 Index is down 1.5% year to date as of March 6, 2026, but the average stock in the index is up 3.2%. 

Another risk we cited was a potential artificial intelligence (AI) bubble. Although scrutiny on AI an

Managed futures strategies, also known as Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) or trend-followers, are designed for environments where macro shifts drive persistent price trends across equity, bond, commodity, and currency markets. As geopolitical risk has spiked due to the conflict with Iran, the current backdrop will present a unique test for investment strategies.

Current Positioning

Using the SG Trend Indicator from Societe Generale Prime Services as an industry proxy, the most recent positioning by asset class is below. Note, depending on a manager’s individual contracts traded and portfolio construction process, exp

As with the recent escalation in the Middle East, financial markets are constantly exposed to unpredictable events — from geopolitical conflicts and terror attacks to political transitions, corporate crises, and systemic financial shocks. While each new development tends to generate uncertainty and anxiety, history consistently shows that markets are far more resilient than most investors expect.

Reviewing market reactions across more than eight decades of market history helps us understand how stocks typically behave when the unexpected happens, and which conditions matter most to determine the likely depth and duration of

With February behind us, we conducted a deeper dive into exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows over the month and year-to-date (YTD) periods. Flows measure the net movement of cash into and out of investment vehicles, such as mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETF). We analyzed flows to gain insight on investor demand and sentiment surrounding asset classes, sectors, and other segments of markets.

Broad Asset Class Flows

At the broad asset class level, investors continued to pour into equity ETFs, which now represent 78% (~$11 trillion) of the total ETF market, with February realizing a net flow of $139 billion, putting the