We check in again today on some of the real-time economic data that LPL Research is monitoring to provide valuable insights into the current state of the US economy, even as traditional economic data is too slow to pick up the changes that are occurring in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Much of the high-frequency data is now showing a pause in the steady improvement we had seen since the end of March amid increasing public concern over the recent spike in COVID-19 cases in the US. In the last two weeks, the number of daily new US COVID-19 cases has doubled to over 40,000, largely due to surges in many southern and western sta

What a quarter the second quarter was, with the S&P 500 Index adding 20.0%, for the best quarter since 1998 and the best second quarter since 1938. Of course, stocks fell 20% in the first quarter, so what we really have is a bad case of whiplash in 2020 thus far.

“A 20% quarterly gain is quite rare, but the catch is previous large quarterly gains have actually led to continued strength,” according to LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “In fact, a quarter later stocks have been higher the past 8 times after gaining at least 15% during the previous quarter.”

As the LPL Char

Nearly four months ago, in late February, the 10-year Treasury yield broke to its lowest level ever, undercutting the record lows from 2016 of 1.32%. Over the following two weeks, as fears surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic intensified, interest rates experienced an unprecedented collapse, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note eventually trading as low as 0.31% on March 9 (Bloomberg). However, consumers who rushed to refinance loans in mid-March may have been surprised to find that mortgage rates, which typically track the path of longer-term Treasury rates, actually spiked significantly during that time.

So what happened? W

Although the fight against COVID-19 continues to dominate the headlines and our thoughts are with those affected, this is an election year and as we get closer to November it will begin to garner more attention. Next week in our Weekly Market Commentary, we will discuss the election in more detail, but today we wanted to share a very interesting connection between the stock market and election.

Turns out, since 1928, the stock market has accurately predicted the winner of the election 87% of the time and every single year since 1984. It is quite simple. When the S&P 500 Index has been higher the three months before the electi