Corporate America impressed us this earnings season. Though S&P 500 Index companies have generated only 1–2% earnings growth compared with the year-ago quarter, we consider this an excellent result given the challenges companies faced in late 2019. The challenges have not let up in 2020, however, with significant disruptions for U.S. companies operating in China due to the coronavirus outbreak.

Strong Results Amid Stiff Headwinds

Companies have done an admirable job growing profits—considering several stiff headwinds that they’ve faced. Despite slowing global economic growth, weakness in capital investm

U.S. stocks fell during the holiday-shortened week as confirmed cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) continued to rise. The S&P 500 Index still set a fresh record high on Wednesday, partly due to China’s aggressive policy response, but pulled back Thursday and Friday to end the week lower. Earnings news from corporate America generally met expectations, while the Democratic presidential debate kept politics in focus. 

The major U.S. stock indexes all ended the week lower, with the Russell 2000 Index holding up relatively well. The defensive consumer staples, real estate, and utilities sectors outperformed, while the gro

Leading economic indicators finally received the jolt we have been expecting.

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), a composite of leading data series, rose 0.8% month over month in January, ending a string of lethargic readings. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the LEI rose 0.9% year over year, signaling a potential bottom in the series and pointing to economic growth.

The LEI, which we include as one of the “Five Forecasters” of our Recession Watch Dashboard, has yet to turn negative this economic cycle, even though it has come close over the past few months. That

The Federal Reserve (Fed), and central banks globally, have been fretting over low inflation for years, but extraordinary central bank efforts to push inflation higher have not had much success achieving the desired effect, and may have come with unintended consequences.

As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation, a version of the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, has only reached the Fed’s 2% inflation target intermittently over the last 10 years.

The Fed is looking for a better way to tackle inflation as part of its comprehensive review