Hindsight is 20/20, but finding clarity in future uncertainty can be fuzzy.

As we look forward to the year 2020 and a new decade, some key trends and market signals will be important to watch, including progress on U.S.-China trade discussions, an encouraging outlook from corporate America, and continued strength in consumer spending. We expect the U.S. economy to continue to grow and support stocks, as our year-end 2020 S&P 500 Index fair value target range is 3,200–3,300.

“This year, market technicals look strong but valuations appear stretched, unlike late 2018 when technicals were struggling but fu

Market momentum, global participation, and technical support all provide reasons to think gains may not be over for 2019. While volatility is always possible, record highs need not be feared, and seasonal tendencies may remain a tailwind.

More Room to Run

The S&P 500 Index is currently on pace for its best year since 2013, up more than 25%. However, technical analysis is based on the idea that a market in motion may stay in motion, and six of the last seven times the index gained more than 20%, the following year saw double-digit gains. Context is also important, so while year-to-date numbers might look large, the index

U.S. stocks rose for the seventh time in eight weeks as investors took cues from a new batch of optimistic trade headlines. The S&P 500 Index gained 1% during the holiday-shortened week, notching three record high closes along the way. Stocks jumped on Monday after China announced it would tighten rules on intellectual property, a step forward in one of the United States’ primary talking points in trade discussions. Equities then pushed higher on several headlines indicating that both parties are close to signing a limited trade agreement, even though President Donald Trump signed into law a bill supporting Hong Kong protestors.

This Thanksgiving, we’re thankful for solid consumer confidence, even though it has wavered in recent months.

Consumer confidence fell for a fourth straight month in November, according to preliminary Conference Board data. Even though the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index has dropped from its economic cycle peak, consumer sentiment is still historically elevated, as shown in the LPL Chart of the Day.

We’ve been pleasantly surprised by the U.S. consumer’s resilience over the past year as other parts of the domestic economy have weakened amid global headwinds. Strong co