Since we began highlighting the return of fiscal leadership as a primary driver for economic and market activity nearly two years ago, we’ve seen the return to central bank dominance, particularly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. This has significant implications for global markets.

After a decade of easy money, the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provided incentives for investment, and in 2018, the regulatory environment had eased and additional government spending programs further boosted demand. In fact, in our 2018 Outlook: The Return of the Business Cycle, we highlighted the return of fiscal leadership as a primary driver for e

Markets took several punches this week and have not gone to the mat. Investors woke up Monday, September 16, to news of the attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities and surging crude futures prices. Economic data from China showed weaker than expected activity in August. The Federal Reserve (Fed) had to intervene and relieve short-term funding pressures in the U.S. money markets, pumping approximately $200 billion into the U.S. banking system. And, at the conclusion of its monetary policy meeting, the Fed lowered its target for the federal funds rate by 0.25%, to a range of 1.75–2%, a move that pleased some investors and disappoint

September is historically known as one of the worst for stocks, yet in 2019 the S&P 500 Index is up 2.7% so far amid a sea of scary headlines. Incredibly, the S&P 500 has wavered less than 0.1% from its previous close 6 of the past 10 trading sessions, as it consolidates just beneath all-time highs.

“Over the past two weeks we’ve had the European Central Bank meeting, the Federal Reserve meeting, higher inflation, a historic jump in crude oil, Middle East turmoil, trouble in the repo market, and even multiple NFL quarterbacks sustaining major injuries,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan De

U.S. leading indicators were unchanged in August, following a 0.4% increase in July.

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) was flat month over month, beating Bloomberg estimates of a 0.1% decline. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, Slower, But Continued, Growth, the LEI climbed 1.1% year over year. This marks a new low since the 2016 downturn, as the index rolled off strong readings from a year prior.

The LEI, which we include as one of the “Five Forecasters” of our Recession Watch Dashboard, has yet to turn negative this cycle. The index has fallen negative year over