U.S. consumers are feeling especially empowered these days, despite growing pessimism about the economic outlook.

As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, Consumer Confidence Pushes Through Trade Uncertainty, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 135.1 in August. Still, that’s the fifth-highest reading of the economic cycle, an impressive feat given trade tensions and other global headwinds.

August’s strong consumer confidence reading was driven by a 19-year high in consumers’ views of present economic conditions. That’s no surprise to us, as steady gains in

We have lowered our projections for U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, and operating earnings for the S&P 500 Index in 2019, as we noted in the August 19 Weekly Market Commentary: Tweaking Forecasts, and introduced our preliminary 2020 forecasts. Over the next three weeks, we will highlight our reasoning behind these changes. Delayed prospects for a trade agreement between the United States and China remain central to our projections for economic growth and financial market performance in the coming months and quarters.

Tariffs and threats of escalation weigh on business investment. As we emph

Business investment remains a critical component for this economic expansion.

Capital expenditures (capex) drive productivity gains (more output per hour worked), which enables economic growth while keeping inflation contained. That helps keep the Federal Reserve (Fed) at bay.

We received an important data point on business investment yesterday, August 25. While headline durable goods orders beat expectations, demand for aircraft drove the increase. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders fell by 0.4%, and the prior month’s figure was revised down to 0.8% from 1%.

On a year-over-year basis,

When Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell speaks, markets listen. Friday, August 23, the markets had a new opportunity to gauge the Fed’s direction when Powell gave a closely watched speech at the annual gathering of central bankers in Jackson Hole, WY. This was Powell’s first opportunity to follow up on the release of the minutes from the Fed’s July 30-31 policy meeting, where the Fed cut its main policy rate for the first time since the 2007-2008 financial crisis. The minutes revealed general consensus among the meeting attendees that a cut was necessary, as well as a lively debate about the overall future path of rat