We continue to believe there is technical support for the S&P 500 Index as discussed in our August 9 blog, and we’re already seeing some signs of the pessimism that is necessary for forming a bottom. The negative sentiment intensified August 14 following the inversion of the yield curve (discussed in our August 14 blog), so today we want to take a closer look at some key levels the LPL Research team is watching.

First is resistance, or levels that an index or stock may struggle to rise above. Despite Tuesday’s 1.5% gain, the S&P 500 ran right into its 50-day moving average near 2,940. This level also marked th

A closely watched point on the Treasury yield curve has fallen negative for the first time in this economic cycle.

As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, Yield Curve Inversion Raises Economic Questions, the spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields fell as low as  -2 basis points (-0.02%) in trading on August 14.

Typically, yield curve inversion, when long-term yields fall below short-term yields, is viewed as a signal of oncoming recession, although often with a relatively long lead. In the past five economic expansions, the U.S. economy has peaked an average of 21 months after the spre

Consumer inflation has surged back after a strong quarter of U.S. consumer demand.

As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, Consumer Inflation Picks Up in July, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy prices, rose 2.2% year over year last month, its fastest pace of growth in six months. Core CPI has climbed 0.3% month over month in June and July, its biggest two-month gain since 2005.

Today’s data could be a relief for investors, as slowing growth in consumer inflation earlier this year sparked concerns of weakening global demand. Core CPI growth dipped as low as 2% year o

Stocks endured significant volatility last week but showed some resilience Wednesday, August 7, when the S&P 500 Index dropped as much as 2% intraday before rallying back late to close slightly positive. Stocks ended the week near flat, putting the S&P 500 about 3% away from its record high.

Trade News

Escalating trade tensions drove the volatility. In response to President Trump’s latest tariff threat, the Chinese central bank allowed its currency (the yuan) to weaken below the psychologically important 7 per dollar level considered a line in the sand. 

Unfortunately, both sides may inflict m