Economy

Mixed Economic Signals Continue in March

U.S. economic data were mixed in March, although leading indicators signaled low odds of a recession in the coming year [Figure 1]. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, an aggregate of ten leading indicators, rose 0.2% in February for its first gain in five months and 3% year over year.

February’s jobs report, released March 8, was disappointing at first glance. Nonfarm payrolls rose in February, but the headline number missed consensus estimates by a wide margin. However, the weak jobs gain followed the biggest two-month increa

First quarter earnings season kicks off this week and the bar seems low. Consensus estimates for first quarter earnings season are calling for a slight year-over-year decline in S&P 500 Index earnings amid the economic soft patch at the start of the year. Marking the one-year anniversary of the tax reform earnings boost, in the first quarter of 2018, has made the annual comparison more difficult, as shown in Figure 1. We expect roughly flat earnings for the quarter, but the streak of seven straight quarters of earnings growth could come to an end. Here we preview the upcoming earnings season, highlight some key themes, and share some thou

A chilly winter is finally behind us, and flowers are starting to bloom. The U.S. economy kicked off the year with a disappointing first quarter as consumers and businesses weathered symptoms of a global slowdown. Thankfully, seasons change, and we’re seeing signs of thaw in leading economic data.

Seasonal Weakness

The U.S. economy likely hit a soft patch last quarter, with forecasters predicting it could have been the slowest quarter for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in three years. Even though last quarter felt especially rough, it’s important to consider that there are seasonal tendencies in the data tha

Wall Street is watching a litany of telling economic and market signals, but the rest of the world is watching college basketball. Four teams will be left standing after tonight (April 1) in both the NCAA men’s and women’s college basketball championships, and new national champions will be crowned in just a week.

A few upsets have happened this quarter, and both brackets and economic forecasts have been busted. As investors sift through conflicting signals in economic and market data, we thought we’d highlight our own Final Four, or the four biggest catalysts we think could jump-start economic growth nearly 10