Commodity market trends: Commodity markets have been on an impressive, and volatile, run so far this decade, with leadership oscillating between energy and precious metals. Not surprising, after commodities’ “Lost Decade” of the 2010s, given the asset class tends to move in long capital cycles.

Shift to Agriculture: LPL Research has written plenty on precious metals and energy and holds positive views on each. However, the focus this week is on a corner of the commodity complex that is just starting to break out and catch our attention — agriculture.

Supply constraints and geopolitics: Constra

From the April payroll report released on May 8, we realize that not all industries are equally impacted by AI. Diagnostic imaging centers, an area where AI is thought to replace humans, have increased demand for workers, whereas bookkeeping demand has declined in recent years. William Jevons, a British economist born in the same town as the Beatles but less famous, explained that increased efficiencies may spark additional demand and that this concept may help us understand the potential AI impacts on the job market.

The Jevons paradox suggests that when technology makes the use of a resource more efficient, demand for that reso

One of my guiding investment philosophies is that headlines drive markets in the short term but over the long term it is fundamentals that drive markets. That has played out multiple times over the last year. There have been significant sell-offs due to tariff policy and the war in the Middle East. Yet the market rebounded not long after these declines based on an underlying strength in corporate earnings.

Rising markets make everyone feel better, but they also come with higher expectations. Today, the key question is not whether fundamentals are strong but whether the market’s consensus view is too optimistic. Currently, m

Most portfolio manager mistakes don’t feel reckless when they’re initially put into motion. The manager’s compelling track record and narrative over time leads to reasonable outlooks, portfolio themes, positioning, and trades. The story makes sense. Near term performance in these scenarios ranges from defensible to even impressive, and nothing appears broken yet from an outsider’s perspective.

A contrasting lens tends to be used when we view these mistakes in a backward-looking fashion. Often, lead portfolio managers and key investment professionals don’t fail because they lose skill or discipline. T