Investors are sifting through a deluge of backlogged data after a historic U.S. government shutdown. As data have caught up, many reports have missed consensus estimates, stoking fears that Wall Street may be overlooking a slowdown in the U.S. economy [Figure 1].

To help allay those fears, we’re addressing some questions we’ve received about the economic landscape recently, and provide our thoughts on what to look for in gauging economic health.

Are We Nearing a Recession?

We don’t expect a U.S. economic recession this year for several reasons, many of which we outlined in our Out

The rally continues, as the S&P 500 Index gained for the seventh week out of the past eight, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Russell 2000 Index, and Nasdaq all closed higher for the eighth consecutive week. Sparking the rally this week were Washington striking a deal to avoid another government shutdown and hopes that President Trump might push back the March 1 deadline on higher tariffs on Chinese goods.

With the S&P 500 off to its best year’s start since 1991, how much further can things go? This week we’re going to take a look at market sentiment, which can play an important part in determining how

2019 has been a busy year so far. The United States has weathered a 35-day government shutdown, global data have deteriorated further, trade headlines continue to dominate the news, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) has made a significant U-turn in monetary policy plans, all on top of the sharp market sell-off in late 2018. In response to the collective impact of these events, we’ve adjusted our 2019 economic forecasts [Figure 1].

Fed Forecast

In January, policymakers removed language from the Fed’s policy statement that “some further gradual (rate) increases” would be consistent with econom

Earnings growth slowed in the fourth quarter but was still solid. With two-thirds of S&P 500 Index companies having reported results so far, corporate America has delivered solid earnings growth—in the mid-to-high teens—for the quarter. However, slowing global growth and trade tensions have challenged the outlook, setting up slower earnings gains in the coming year. This week we provide key takeaways from fourth quarter earnings season, and update our 2019 earnings outlook.

The Numbers

Year-over-year earnings growth for the fourth quarter is tracking near 17%, one percentage point above the growth rate r