A disappointing February jobs report, released March 8, has increased concerns about a slowing U.S. economy among some market participants. However, we believe the report did little to change the overall economic picture. In fact, job growth and modestly rising wages remain strengths of the current economy and continue to support consumer activity. The economy added 20,000 jobs in February, the slowest pace of growth since September 2017. While that level of gains would be a concern if it were to continue, it comes against a backdrop of robust jobs gains the prior two months, and looking back a year, annual job growth remains well above the c

Following the strong 2019 rally, we ask if stocks are overdue for a pullback. The S&P 500 Index rallied 17% in 2019 and 9.4% since the December 24, 2018, low. The strength of the rally has been a surprise to many given widespread concerns about slower global growth, trade uncertainty, and the age of the bull market — which turned 10 last weekend, as we discussed here last week. Following that strong rally, a pullback is to be expected; but we don’t think it will get much worse than last week’s 2.1% drop, for reasons discussed below.

Fundamentals Remain Sound

Although stocks may need a pause to digest re

Pessimism has rapidly infiltrated Main Street’s outlook, according to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest edition of the Beige Book. By our measure, sentiment in the March 6 Beige Book, a qualitative assessment of the domestic economy and each of the 12 Fed districts, fell to its lowest point in seven years [Figure 1]. On the surface, the Beige Book’s negative tone is striking compared to recent versions, but context around key words is especially important in this edition.

Trade-Related Weakness

Economic reports are important for clues on economic health and macro trends, but the Beige Book pr

The bull market will celebrate its tenth birthday on March 9, 2019. During that period, the S&P 500 Index has increased more than fourfold in value, producing a total return of 410% (17.7% annualized) while rising 314% in price. Concerns over the global economy, along with a potential policy mistake by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the trade dispute with China, all have many wondering just how much the longest bull market ever could have left in the tank. This week, we’ll show why this bull market is indeed alive and well and could make it to 11 next year.

The Longest Bull, but…

On March 9, 2009, the S&P