March Madness for Central Banks

The month of March is generally eventful and provides us with multiple potential market-moving events to monitor. It has been a roller coaster of a year so far, with one of the strongest January returns ever for the S&P 500 Index, only to be followed by the fastest descent ever from record highs to a correction (nine days) in early February. As we turn the calendar to March, the days will get longer and a little warmer, and basketball brackets will be released.

To help investors cope with the distractions of March Madness and stay on top of the latest in the financial markets, we have create

Fourth quarter earnings season has been outstanding. As good as it has been, perhaps most impressive is the strong guidance corporate America has provided. In response, we have raised our S&P 500 Index earnings forecast for 2018 and our S&P 500 year-end fair value target proportionately. Our revised year-end S&P 500 fair value range of 2950–3000, approximately 7–9% above Friday’s close, represents a 19.5 price-to-earnings (PE) ratio on $152.50 in earnings per share (EPS).

Strong Company Guidance

Fourth quarter earnings growth of over 15% reported by S&P 500 companies is outstanding, in our opi

Are we out of the woods yet? After the fastest correction from a record high in the history of the S&P 500 Index, stocks staged an impressive comeback last week. The S&P 500 put together its best week since 2013, rallying more than 5% off the lows to bring its session win streak to six. This week we consider what this means moving forward, including what higher interest rates and rising inflation might mean for stocks.

Strong Fundamentals

Whether we are out of the woods yet is a tough question to answer with any confidence, but when we weigh the evidence, it appears the odds are good that the worst is behind us.

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Inflation data stole the headlines, but reports on retail sales, manufacturing, and consumer sentiment were also released last week (February 12 – 16). Market participants may have been on edge about inflation, following faster than expected wage growth in the January jobs report that had pushed market interest rates higher and led to a brief, though volatile, correction in stocks during the previous week. However, even though both consumer and producer inflation came in above expectations, and interest rates moved higher, stocks saw gains every day last week. The S&P 500 closed the week 4.4% higher as investors renewed their focus