3.18.25 Credit Spreads: Recession Indicator or Market Correction?
The recent downturn in equity markets has heightened fears of a looming recession among investors. Factors such as newly imposed tariffs by the new presidential administration, concerns about an economic slowdown, and persistent inflationary pressures have all contributed to the prevailing bearish sentiment. While equities have declined in recent weeks, credit spreads — the gap between corporate bond yields and U.S. Treasury bond yields — have widened. This widening is seen by some as a potential recession signal, reflecting greater risk aversion and unease about the economic outlook.
For instance, the ICE BofA U.S. H
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