Fixed income investors will remember 2022–2024 as the longest and deepest yield curve inversion in modern history. After first inverting in July 2022, the yield curve didn’t revert back to “normal” until December 2024 — over a year after troughing at -1.09% (meaning the 2-year yield was higher than the 10-year yield by over 1%). Aggressive rate cut expectations by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and concerns about an economic slowdown that never materialized originally pushed longer-term yields down below shorter-maturity Treasury yields. However, with economic data coming in better than expected, inflationary pressure

Following the second inauguration of President Donald Trump, we decided to conduct a deep-dive analysis of stock market performance under different presidential administrations, hoping to glean some insight on if policy outweighs fundamentals. 

With President Joe Biden’s presidency officially closed, we can now see that the stock market, as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow), rose 39.4% under his leadership. When comparing it to Trump’s first term, Biden lagged by nearly 20%, as the Dow gained 57.4% under Trump (we us the Dow for this analysis because of its longer history). While lagging by nearl

The Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates last September and, to date, the central bank has lowered rates by 1%. But over the same period, long-term Treasury yields are higher by 1% (per the 10-year Treasury yield). Does that mean bond investors are worried about inflationary pressures reigniting, particularly with tariffs and a pro-growth policy agenda under the new Trump presidency? Not yet at least. The bond market is expecting inflationary pressures to be higher than the low inflation regime experienced pre-COVID-19, but inflation expectations are not necessarily unanchored, which is good news for the Fed. And for those investors worri

After a slow start out of the gate, stocks are finally starting to make some technical progress this month. Call it a Trump bump or another buy-the-dip-inspired rebound, but the S&P 500 is trading less than 1% away from a record high, as of January 22. A close above 6,090.27 would check the box for a new high and end the 29-trading day dry spell without one, a relatively high count considering the index made a new high every 4.4 trading days in 2024.

There are plenty of catalysts underpinning the recent advance. President Trump brings a pro-growth agenda to Washington, along with expectations of reduced regulations and the pr