Use of the terms “bull” and “bear” in financial markets can be traced back to London’s financial district in the late 19th century, used as an analogy for how each animal attacks; the bull thrusts its horns upwards, and a bear swipes its paws downwards. Others believe the terms started in the 16th century when bearskin salesmen would sell skins they had yet to receive from trappers, hoping the price from trappers would drop. We’ll leave that debate to you. On Wall Street today, firms consider a base case, or what they believe will likely occur, and bull and bear cases of factors that could sway markets in e

Early in the second Trump administration, tariff threats have revived market volatility. Recent Treasury yield curve movements reflect this uncertainty, with markets reacting to both threatened and postponed tariffs against key trading partners. Short-term yields rose as markets pushed back expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, while long-term yields declined on economic slowdown concerns and potential trade tensions. These yield curve dynamics mirror patterns seen during the first Trump presidency

During the first Trump administration, trade tensions between the U.S. and China moved both interest rate and credit mark

Reframing the Active-Passive Debate

There is much debate on whether active investment managers can consistently outperform passive benchmark indexes, often framed as “active versus passive.” When framed this way, the word “versus” implies there is stark opposition between the two concepts or that perhaps they are irreconcilable. Our view is different, as we believe it can be beneficial to use active and passive management together in portfolios.

Active managers choose stocks, bonds, or other securities based on their research and outlook, often attempting to outperform a benchmark index. Mea

Overview

Looking back, 2024 clearly echoed many of the themes from 2023. By and large, the economy continued to defy expectations and surprised once again to the upside. Stocks continued their strong performance, driven by powerful trends in artificial intelligence and technology. On the other hand, the bond market experienced another lackluster year amid policy ambiguity and uneasiness over rising debt levels.

As we look to 2025, we remain cautiously optimistic. We’re cautious because no market environment is ever permanent, yet optimistic since constructive long-term technology trends are in place. Plus, potential tax