Opportunities abound in the markets, even during periods when the economy appears ripe for a regime shift. Recent growth metrics surprised to the upside, but leading indicators point toward some downside risk. In this edition of the Weekly Market Commentary, we examine potential opportunities amid a rotation in housing, buying patterns, and inflation.

Inflation Trajectory Is Favorable for Risk Assets

Headline inflation in October was unchanged month over month, pulling the annual rate down to 3.0% from 3.4%. Markets often focus on the core services rate of inflation excluding housing, and that important category decelerated

Key Takeaways:

• Oversold conditions and tumbling interest rates have brought buyers back into equity markets this week. The S&P 500 has recaptured its closely watched 200-day moving average (dma).

• Historically, index returns following a move back above the 200-dma have yielded positive but underwhelming returns, suggesting crossovers should be used more as a confirmation of trend than a binary trading signal.

• Seasonal tailwinds could keep this recovery moving forward. The S&P 500 has generated an average return of 7.0% from November through April, marking the best six-month return period for the market sin

In a unanimous decision yesterday, The Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates unchanged following its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. This marks the second straight meeting in which a rate hike was skipped, however, Chair Jerome Powell, didn’t rule out future increases. For now, the target rate remains at 5.25%-5.50%. Markets reacted positively to the news as stock prices rallied and bond yields fell.

Leaving the Door Open

The FOMC’s November Statement maintained the possibility of future rate hikes as they remain “highly attentive to inflation risks”. The Committee is still determini

Even after a red October provided more trick than a treat for stock market investors, we continue into what has historically been one of the strongest periods for stock market seasonality.

A red October was the third consecutive month in a row that the S&P 500 was lower. August and September have never been good for stock market seasonals but historically, and especially in recent years, October has had a fairly solid track record for stocks—not the case in 2023 as the S&P 500 fell 2.2% during the month. The good news is that from a seasonality perspective, looking at data back to 1950, November has been the stronge