Based on data released this week, the domestic housing market for both single and multi-family units had a very strong month in May. This is important because increased construction, especially of multi-family units, should help relieve some pressure on rents, and shelter has been one of the “sticky” components of inflation that has made it harder for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to justify a pivot in the current interest rate hiking cycle.

The U.S. Homebuilder Confidence Index released on Monday improved to an almost one-year high. The monthly report released by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) increased

As the economy is likely downshifting, investors should take heed that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) current stance is eerily similar to early 2007.  During that time, the Fed held a tightening bias since they believed the housing market was stabilizing, the economy would continue to expand, and inflation risks remained. Clearly, their expectations were not met as the economy soon fell into recession. That’s not suggesting another 2008 is coming, but rather highlights how fast the economic environment can change. 

Overview

Forecasting regime shifts are difficult for both public policymakers and private i

Yesterday was the 100th trading day of 2023, and a productive 100 days for stocks it was. Through that 100th trading day on May 25, about 40% of the way through the year, the S&P 500 Index has gained a solid 8.1% (excluding dividends). That milestone on the calendar seems like a good time to look at what the strong start to the year might mean for the rest of 2023.

Since 1950, in years when the S&P 500 has been up at least 7% through the first 100 trading days, the average gain over the rest of the year has been a robust 9.4%, with the median slightly better at 10.0% (see table below). That compares to the average gain of

Economists like to remind us there is no such thing as a free lunch. In investment parlance, that just means all investments carry risk—even cash. And the big risk with cash is reinvestment risk. That is, while short-term rates are currently elevated, the risk is these rates won’t last and upon maturity, investors will have to reinvest proceeds at lower rates. And if this current cycle follows history, we could see lower core bond yields over the next year, which would mean cash-only investors may miss out on these higher yields. LPL’s Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) recommends investors maintain a