Another year, another showdown in the U.S. over raising the debt limit. For many readers, it may feel like we’re having the same conversations, rehashing the same talking points, and navigating the same risks on the debt ceiling as we have in past years past – a form of economic déjà vu. 

Speaking from an economist and investor’s viewpoint—and also as a columnist that has covered these debt ceiling standoffs on numerous occasions over the past several years—I can confirm that the debate itself is the same. It’s the balance of power in the U.S. government that changes. &n

First quarter earnings season is nearly complete, and it has caused us to regret titling our earnings preview commentary on April 10, “Malaise Continues.” While the “better than feared” label fit the past couple of earnings seasons quite well, based on the magnitude of upside surprises in the first quarter, and encouraging guidance from corporate America, that’s probably underselling it. There’s plenty to worry about the rest of the year (debt limit, recession, tightening financial conditions, a Federal Reserve (Fed) policy mistake, among them), but the risk of an additional sharp contraction in profit marg

The Federal Reserve (Fed) released its quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices yesterday and it continues to show banks are tightening lending standards on commercial and industrial (C&I) loans. C&I loans are an important funding source for companies that can’t (or don’t want to) access capital markets to fund growth initiatives or to just help pay the bills. Moreover, C&I loans are an especially important funding source for lower-rated companies because borrowing (or issuing additional equity shares) can be too restrictive and costs prohibitive at times, whereas C&I loans are short-t

Much has been written lately about the threats facing the reserve currency status enjoyed by the U.S. dollar. “De-dollarization” headlines appear on a near-daily basis, suggesting the dollar’s reign is in looming jeopardy, while counter arguments point out there isn’t another currency with the depth, transparency, and reliability associated with the dollar. Still, critics accuse the U.S. of having “weaponized” the dollar, that is, punishing other countries with sanctions and freezing assets. These accusations have been particularly prevalent as the Ukraine/Russia conflict continues, with Russia and its long-