The market pundits remain intensely focused on the question of whether the U.S. economy is in or about to enter recession, so we thought a piece on what a recession might mean for the stock market would be of interest. While Friday’s strong jobs report provides more evidence that the U.S. economy is not currently in recession, odds are still perhaps a coin flip or better that one may come in the next year. Here we update changing recession prospects and what that might mean for stocks.

Where Did All the Jobs Go?

Payrolls surged by 528,000 in July and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. Moreover, net revisions to the p

LPL Financial held its FOCUS conference at the Colorado convention center in Denver, CO from July 24-27. LPL Research was proud to be part of this annual event that allows thousands of LPL’s financial advisors to experience industry-driven sessions elevated by the extensive knowledge and experience of LPL executives, industry leaders, and dynamic guest speakers. “LPL Research had the pleasure of speaking directly with many advisors during the FOCUS conference,” said LPL Financial Portfolio Strategist George Smith “recession risks are clearly front of mind as we answered many questions on this, among other interesting t

That was quite a week. These days a Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting alone gets a lot of headlines and has market participants on the edge of their seats. Add to that the second straight quarter of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth that exacerbated recession fears, the busiest week of earnings season, and important but sometimes under-the-radar inflation data, and last week was epic for market watchers. Here’s the good news: Markets liked it.

Fed Meeting Recap: Market Gets a Whiff of a Pivot

Let’s start our recap of the epic week with the Fed meeting. Perhaps the market’s biggest fear has be

For the past year, supply-related problems contributed more to inflation than demand-related imbalances, but that may be changing soon. There are at least three factors that could change the course of inflation. First, the improvement in shipping and general supply bottlenecks could ease inflation. Second, strength in the U.S. dollar could offset some of the current inflationary pressures. And third, import prices have moderated since the beginning of 2022 and as import prices slow, we expect consumer prices to eventually reflect the slowdown in import prices. 

What Was Keeping Inflation Elevated?

In recent months, inf