We agree with the consensus view that stock valuations are elevated by traditional measures. But valuations should be considered in the context of the economic regime and earnings environment. Factoring in outlooks for economic growth, inflation, int

Risk appetite remains firmly intact as optimism surrounding a potential resolution to the war with Iran continues to improve investor sentiment. The S&P 500 has now advanced for eight consecutive weeks, with price action remaining remarkably resi

The artificial intelligence (AI) boom has transitioned from an equity market narrative to a defining force in fixed income. Hyperscalers (Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG/L), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Oracle (ORCL)) are shifting from internal ca

Commodity market trends: Commodity markets have been on an impressive, and volatile, run so far this decade, with leadership oscillating between energy and precious metals. Not surprising, after commodities’ “Lost Decade” of the 201

From the April payroll report released on May 8, we realize that not all industries are equally impacted by AI. Diagnostic imaging centers, an area where AI is thought to replace humans, have increased demand for workers, whereas bookkeeping demand h

One of my guiding investment philosophies is that headlines drive markets in the short term but over the long term it is fundamentals that drive markets. That has played out multiple times over the last year. There have been significant sell-offs due

Most portfolio manager mistakes don’t feel reckless when they’re initially put into motion. The manager’s compelling track record and narrative over time leads to reasonable outlooks, portfolio themes, positioning, and trades. The s

Headlines surrounding the Middle East have dominated investor attention since late February. While uncertainty remains elevated, diplomatic negotiations have supported equities, even as fixed income and commodity markets continue to reflect potential

Rising Conviction on Earnings Growth

In last month’s update, we highlighted a shift from preparation to action as market conditions began to support increased equity exposure. Since then, that positioning has become even more gro

A common approach by investors is to invest in funds that have historically outperformed their benchmark index, hoping that a fund’s past outperformance will continue. Our research finds this approach can often work — until it doesn&rsquo