The S&P 500 Index is very close to our year-end target of 3,000. The S&P 500 is up nearly 20% year to date and, after first closing above our year-end fair value target range July 12, it now stands less than 1% from our target [Figure 1]. Now

Second quarter earnings season gets rolling this week. Consensus estimates are calling for a modest year-over-year decline in S&P 500 Index earnings amid the downshift in U.S. and international economic growth, tariffs, and ongoing trade tensions

Even after such a strong first half of this year, we think stocks may have more left in the tank. The S&P 500 Index gained 17.4% during the first half of 2019 — an excellent performance — even though a decent chunk of those gains reve

We expect stocks to move higher over the second half of the year. Stocks already have had quite a run in 2019, buoyed by a return to fundamentals, with the S&P 500 Index up 17.4% year to date through June 28 for an 18.5% total return. The decisio

A potential rate cut may give stocks a lift. Stocks have benefited recently from increasing hopes of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut, pulling the S&P 500 Index back to within 2% of its record high set on April 30, as of June 14. On June 4 Fed Ch

Last week stocks enjoyed their best week since November 2018 despite rampant policy uncertainty. Policy uncertainty remains high, particularly around trade, but you wouldn’t know it from last week’s stock market rally, which jumped 4.4% o

Should stock investors be concerned about the signals coming from the bond market? Trade tensions were the biggest reason stocks suffered their first down month of 2019 in May, but worrisome signals from the bond market contributed. This week we look

Our favorite leading indicators are signaling that futher economic growth and stock market gain may lie ahead. With the economic cycle celebrating a record tenth birthday this summer, the big question is how much longer can the expansion go? This wee

Earnings season delivered as expected. With 92% of results for S&P 500 Index companies in the books, first quarter 2019 earnings are tracking to roughly flat with the prior year [Figure 1]. While flat earnings don’t sound impressive, we con

U.S.-China trade tensions escalated last week. President Trump increased tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports to the United States from 10% to 25% and has threatened to put 25% tariffs on an additional $325 billion of Chinese goods — a pr