COVID-19 has decimated global demand as lockdowns materially re-shaped consumer and business behavior. Even as states have begun to re-open, significant questions remain about how demand could recover. The May retail sales print provided one of the first glimpses of that answer, rising 17.7% month over month and marking the largest monthly gain since data began in 1992.

Pent-up demand and an added boost from government stimulus helped fuel such a large gain. Each category of the report was positive in May, indicating broad-based increased demand for goods. As demand post-lockdown shifted away from discretionary spending items suc

The yield on the 10-year Treasury yield has been broadly declining since the early 1980s, when it peaked over 15%, but even over that long decline there have been intermittent periods of rising rates. In fact, after periods of especially large decline there has usually been an extended reversal over the next 1-2 years.

“The trend has been toward lower interest rates for almost 40 years, and over that period many have expected higher rates, only to be disappointed time and time again,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick.

But there have been exceptions. Using quarter-end data, we looke

The market focuses on today and trends in the road ahead, and here in the middle of June, it’s seeing some green shoots in the road to recovery. These green shoots are timely economic data that continues to provide insight into the US economic recovery.

“The good news is that much of the real-time economic data is showing tangible evidence that economic activity, while still really depressed, is beginning to come back,” said LPL Financial Chief Investment Officer Burt White.

For more of Burt’s thoughts on recent economic activity and key trends to watch, please watch our close-up, real time ed

Stocks staged perhaps the strongest rally in history—a more than 44% gain for the S&P 500 Index from March 23 through June 8—before pulling back about 6% late last week. With so much economic healing ahead of us and a still-uncertain path for COVID-19, the key question for investors is whether stocks are pricing in an overly optimistic scenario for the recovery in economic activity and corporate profits.

Markets Reflect a Lot of Optimism

Our expectations for a gradual economic recovery in the second half, discussed here last week, appear to be in conflict with the stock market’s rapid ascent over the pa