US equities continued to gain ground in May, with the S&P 500 Index advancing an additional 4.5%. However, Treasury yields have been remarkably stable since the equity markets bottomed on March 23, with the 10-year Treasury yield trading in just a 16 basis point range during the entire month of May. That all changed this month, as the benchmark yield broke out of its range, moving 30 basis points higher to 0.96% in the first five trading days of June.

So where can yields go from here? As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, there may be more room to run before yields run into technical resistance from the 2019 lows. These lows

In probably one of the least surprising economic calls of all time, the Nation Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declared an end to the longest expansion ever and the start of a new recession. As shown in the LPL Chart of the day, the record expansion lasted 128 months, twice the length of the average expansion.

The catch though—and there’s always a catch. This might have been the longest expansion ever, but the economy grew only 50% as measure by nominal GDP during these 10-plus years (including inflation), nearly the same as the average expansion, even though this expansion was twice as lon

It has been a volatile year for the US dollar, which has given back nearly all of its gains in 2020 after behaving as a “safe haven” during the market volatility in March. While a variety of factors and headlines can have short-term effects on the dollar, an important longer-term driver is the US “twin deficits”—the combination of the budget deficit and the trade deficit.

As a historical net importer, the US has usually carried a trade deficit, and with the passage of the record setting CARES Act—the first trillion dollar stimulus package—the budget deficit has ballooned and has stretched

The strongest 50-day rally in the S&P 500 Index in over 70 years has sent a signal that the economic recovery is gaining steam and may look more like a “V” than a “U,” a square root, checkmark, or swoosh. We assess the probabilities of these various scenarios for recovery and reiterate our 2020 economic growth forecasts.

As Goes the Virus, So Goes the Economy

The US economy almost certainly entered a recession in March 2020 as a result of the lockdowns and business closures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. After gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 5% during first quarter 2020 on an annuali