Real-Time Data Recovery Stalled Amid COVID-19 Resurgence

We check in again today on some of the real-time economic data that LPL Research is monitoring to provide insight into how the latest increase in COVID-19 cases and the rollback of certain reopening measures are affecting the state of the US economy, as traditional monthly and quarterly economic data are too slow to pick up the changes that are occurring.

The high-frequency data that we monitor is now showing a pause, slowing, or even a modest reversal in the recovery. This comes as some states rollback reopenings, and Americans make changes to their

Based on the latest polling data, there’s growing consensus that former Vice President Joe Biden potentially may win the election and Democrats possibly may sweep Congress. Some might think this could be a negative for stocks, as a higher corporate tax rate that reduces earnings could be part of the Democratic platform.

Early writers of the US Constitution were worried about one party having too much power that could enable factions in Washington, DC, to enact more extreme policies and political ideals, upsetting the carefully balanced apple cart. As we noted in our recently released Midyear Outlook 2020, stocks historicall

After pulling back in the first quarter of 2020, flows into bond mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) dominated stocks in the second quarter. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the second quarter is consistent with recent history, as bond flows have topped stock flows in 15 of 18 quarters going back to the start of 2016.

“While there may be some natural explanations for bond flows, there is also concern that bond enthusiasm has moved toward an extreme after a multi-decade bull run,” said LPL Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick.

While bonds remain an important part of a diversified portfolio,

Stocks continued their strong run in June, despite rising COVID-19 cases in several western and southern states. Reopening progress, better-than-expected economic data, optimism around vaccine prospects, and the likelihood of more stimulus offered support. We have upgraded our view of growth stocks to positive. 

• Our equities recommendation remains overweight. Although we continue to believe markets may be pricing in an overly optimistic economic recovery scenario and a pullback may be overdue, reopening progress, surprisingly strong recent economic data, and progress on COVID-19 treatments are encouraging, while massi