As market watchers prepared for America’s 250th birthday celebration, global equity markets delivered a strong finish to the second quarter. The S&P 500 printed its best quarterly return since 2020 amid high profile economic data and rotation dynamics, while also posting a moderate gain over the holiday-shortened week. Asian equities capped their best quarterly result since 2009 while European shares also sealed their best quarter in six years. Fixed income markets traded lower over the last four days after ending a positive quarter. In commodities and currencies, oil continued to fall and the yen remained on intervention watch.

The dollar holds a central place in global markets due to its role as the world’s reserve currency. Its movements influence cross-asset correlations, shape liquidity conditions, and often offer early indications of shifts in the broader macro regime. In short, it is a critical variable that warrants close attention.

Over the past 11 months, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has traded within a relatively tight five percent range, a notable period of consolidation. More importantly, there are now early signs of a breakout, with price action beginning to push higher and move beyond the confines of the recent range. Equally signific

The second quarter wraps up today, and it was a good one. With the S&P 500 having returned more than 14% (including dividends) with just one trading day left, it will almost certainly end up being the best quarter for the index since the second quarter of 2020. Technology was the leader despite the June weakness.

As the quarter ends, corporate America closes its books and prepares to report results to the public over the coming months. First quarter results were spectacular, as S&P 500 companies collectively grew earnings per share (EPS) by 29%. Even excluding private equity gains on OpenAI and Anthropic shares held by me

The second quarter is winding down and what a quarter it has been with the S&P 500 up 12.6% quarter to date, while the Nasdaq-100 and Russell 2000 are both up over 20%. Despite some twists and turns, the path of least resistance for stocks broadly remained up and to the right for much of the last three months. The powerful rally and the blockbuster initial public offering (IPO) of Elon Musk’s SpaceX (SPCX) have sparked the question whether market optimism has become excessive. To quote the thirteenth Chair of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, who passed away just one week ago and in 1996 famously asked: “How do we know when