Key Talking Points

• Global growth remains uneven, with the U.S. economy continuing to outperform while China faces softer demand and a less consistent recovery. For an in-depth outlook, consult the July Economic Navigator.

• China's sharp decline in crude oil imports has helped offset some of the oil price pressures stemming from Middle East tensions, suggesting demand weakness is currently balancing supply risks.

• U.S. inflation trends are improving, as core consumer inflation continues to moderate, reducing the likelihood of Fed rate hikes in the near term.

• Import prices remai

The most dangerous investment mistakes often begin with an inability to imagine outcomes that differ from what the market expects. That does not mean investors should reflexively bet against strong trends, because momentum is real and great businesses can stay great for a long time, but when an investment thesis depends on outcomes that are inherently unknowable, imagination becomes a risk-management tool.

One useful exercise is steel-manning, which is simply taking the other side of an argument or debate and building the strongest version of it. Perhaps the most uncomfortable version of that exercise is imagining a future in whi

The term “resource nationalism” generally describes the deliberate effort by nation states to assert control over, direct, and secure access to natural resources within their borders or broader spheres of influence. It is rarely just about commodities themselves. Rather, it reflects a deeper strategic impulse where governments begin to view resource endowments as core to national power, economic resilience, and geopolitical advantage. Once that mindset takes hold, it does not remain confined to the resource sector alone. It propagates outward, reshaping policy frameworks, trade relationships, capital flows, and ultimately, the bro

The Changing of the Guard

Kevin Warsh, the new chair of the Federal Open Market Committee, has an initiative to modernize the way policy is developed, and he has established five task forces to evaluate the current process and deliver recommendations for improvement.

He framed the initiative around a simple reality: the U.S. economy looks very different today than it did a generation ago. With rapid technological change and shifting labor market dynamics, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is undertaking a broad review of how it conducts monetary policy. The five task forces have been charged with examining whether the cent