The stock market has been hovering near record highs despite an assortment of economic and geopolitical risks. In the spirit of Halloween, we discuss some of the tricks and treats that might spook the markets between now and year-end. Trade remains the biggest worry, followed by bond markets, U.S. manufacturing activity, fear of a Fed policy misstep, and global geopolitical concerns.

U.S.-China Trade Dispute Continues

The U.S.-China trade conflict remains a wild card for U.S. and global economies, and it headlines our list of concerns. The United States and China have reportedly reached a verbal “truce,” and by a

U.S. stocks gained for a third straight week, and the S&P 500 Index brushed record highs. Stocks rose as discussions around the United Kingdom’s (U.K.) exit from the European Union (EU) (Brexit) led to U.K. lawmakers rejecting a proposal to “fast‐track” a deal before October 31. The EU is considering another Brexit deadline extension, a positive development for markets

A U.S.-China trade truce wasn’t enough to spark global manufacturing activity in October.

Manufacturing activity around the world remains sluggish despite trade progress, according to preliminary Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for October. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, manufacturing PMIs for the Eurozone, Germany, and Japan remained near multi-year lows in October.

U.S. and China relations have improved this month as both sides became increasingly optimistic before face-to-face talks earlier this month. On October 11, the United States announced that it had reached a ve

The U.S. dollar, also known as the greenback, is heading for its biggest monthly loss since January 2018, and we could be due for a more prolonged period of weakness after more than 10 years of strength.

As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the recent drop has brought the U.S. Dollar Index down to the 200-day moving average near 97.5. If the dollar breaks below that level, we could see another 1–2% of downside, possibly down to summertime lows.

“Sentiment on the dollar had become overly optimistic this summer,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “From a co