U.S. leading economic indicators declined 0.1% in September, following a revised-down 0.2% decline in August.

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined month over month, underwhelming Bloomberg estimates of a flat reading. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the LEI climbed 0.4% year over year. This marks a new low since the 2016 downturn.

While the obvious downward trajectory projects a view of deteriorating economic strength, we believe that the story behind the headline number paints a less dire picture. The year-over-year number for the past three months has been heavily i

Elevated uncertainty has persisted on Main Street, according to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest Beige Book.

In the Beige Book, the Fed presents qualitative observations made by community bankers and business owners—or “Main Street”—about economic (housing, labor market, manufacturing, nonresidential construction, prices, tourism, wages) and banking conditions (lending conditions, loan demand, loan quality). At LPL Research, we maintain an indicator called the Beige Book Barometer (BBB) to gauge Main Street’s sentiment by looking at how frequently key words and phrases appear in the text.

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” — Mark Twain

Stocks have continued their surprising strength in October, thanks to a potential thaw in the U.S.-China trade dispute. And remember, the S&P 500 Index has been lower in October during a pre-election year only once since 1987. Additionally, over the past 20 years, October has been the third-best month on average for the S&P 500. October has had a bad rap due to some spectacular crashes, but the truth is the month usually is pretty good for stocks.

“The calendar could be about to turn into a bull’s best frien

The debate over the United Kingdom’s (U.K.) withdrawal from the European Union (EU), or Brexit, is reaching another milepost in what could be an action-packed week.

Talks between the U.K. government and the EU have entered “tunnel” negotiation mode, in which all details of behind closed doors talks are expected to remain secret until any deal occurs. This negotiation style allows negotiators from both sides to throw around some of the more unusual proposals without fear of political repercussions.

The clock is ticking to see what emerges on the other side of the “tunnel,” as EU member st