U.S.-China trade tensions escalated last week. President Trump increased tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports to the United States from 10% to 25% and has threatened to put 25% tariffs on an additional $325 billion of Chinese goods — a process that could begin this week, though it would take a couple of months to implement.

Stocks reacted as you would expect, falling 2.1% over the five trading sessions. It could’ve been worse, but the S&P 500 Index gained 0.4% on Friday after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin reported that talks on Thursday and Friday were constructive. Though this slide could certainly go f

Recently, the U.S. economy has shown resilience in powering through political and trade noise. One of the most encouraging reports of late was on productivity (output per hour worked) among nonfarm employees. First quarter productivity rose at the fastest year-over-year pace since 2010, while unit labor costs grew at the slowest pace since 2013.

Growth in productivity is a key part of our economic outlook. Higher productivity boosts both consumer and corporate well-being, feeds into gross domestic product growth, and helps promote healthy inflation. A resurgence in productivity could provide the U.S. economy a timely boost, espec

“Sell in May and go away” is probably the most widely cited stock market cliché in history. Every year a barrage of Wall Street commentaries, media stories, and investor questions flood in about the popular stock market adage. This week, we tackle this commonly cited seasonal pattern, and why some seasonal weakness could make sense in 2019.

The Worst Six Months of the Year

“Sell in May and go away” is the seasonal stock market pattern in which the six months from May through October are historically weak for stocks, with many investors believing that it’s better to avoid the market altoge

Once again, the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the markets are at odds with each other. The Fed announced it would keep rates unchanged at the conclusion of its most recent policy meeting on May 1, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered comments that mirrored what he’s said for the past few months.

Still, bond markets are staunchly positioned for a lower fed funds rate, even as economic data have shown signs of recovery. Fed fund futures are pricing in more than a 50% chance of a rate cut in 2019, and short-term yields have dropped below the upper-bound fed funds rate for the first time this cycle. While investors are literally b