We’ve talked a lot about green shoots in the U.S. economy recently. A slew of recent data has pointed to a rebound in growth from a disappointing first quarter hampered by global headwinds. Last week, we gathered more clues on a potential recovery from an uptick in business sentiment in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Beige Book [Figure 1].

Window on Main Street

Economic reports are important for clues on economic health and macro trends, but the Beige Book, which the Fed produces eight times a year, provides a window into Main Street’s perspective, offering valuable color on how larger trends are

After such a strong rally for stocks this year, you may be wondering what could drive stocks higher from here. With the S&P 500 Index less than 1% away from its all-time high set September 20, 2018, a lot of good news has been priced into stocks. You may also be wondering what possible disappointments could cause stocks to pull back from here, especially given the soft patch in the U.S. economy and corporate profits during the first quarter.

To help us with these questions and in consultation with our friends at Strategas Research Partners, we have taken a look at what may or may not be priced into stocks. In doing so, we hav

The U.S. inflation narrative has flipped. In 2018 and 2019, one of investors’ prevailing worries was that inflationary pressures were increasing and the U.S. economy could start overheating under policymakers’ noses.

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Late in 2018, deteriorating global conditions shifted the economic landscape and fueled concerns that inflationary pressures could be too low, hinting of an impending U.S. economic slowdown. Investors have dealt with several cases of whiplash from changing narratives and policy speculation in this expansion. When that has happened, we’ve leaned toward data for direction. Even though investors’

Economy

Mixed Economic Signals Continue in March

U.S. economic data were mixed in March, although leading indicators signaled low odds of a recession in the coming year [Figure 1]. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, an aggregate of ten leading indicators, rose 0.2% in February for its first gain in five months and 3% year over year.

February’s jobs report, released March 8, was disappointing at first glance. Nonfarm payrolls rose in February, but the headline number missed consensus estimates by a wide margin. However, the weak jobs gain followed the biggest two-month increa