Key Takeaways:

• March was a volatile month, but seasonality patterns prevailed, as stocks stuck to the script of back half outperformance.

• April seasonality trends suggest the melt up could continue. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has posted average and median April returns of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively.

• Historical return progressions for April show a strong first half of the month. During the first 12 trading days, the S&P 500 has historically climbed 1.4%, capturing the majority of the gains for the month.

• The market avoided breaking below the December lows this quarter, triggering a bullis

After one of the weakest February’s on record, the municipal market is on track for its strongest March performance since 2008, as it benefits from a flight to safety amid turmoil in the banking industry. The Bloomberg Municipal Index is up nearly 2% (so far) this month bucking the historical trend of March being the worst month for muni investors. Since 2011, the Bloomberg Municipal Index has lost -0.39%, on average, in March, making it the worst month for the index. The good news for muni investors? The next two months have been good months for muni investors with April and May generating, on average, monthly returns of 0.25% and 0.97

A lot has changed in the past few weeks, both in terms of expectations for interest rates and lost confidence in the health of the banking system as a result of the sharp rise in interest rates that has led to some things “breaking,” as we wrote about here last week. Here we share some thoughts on who’s to blame for the ongoing banking crisis and reiterate how we are telling investors to adjust, or not adjust, their asset allocations in light of ongoing market volatility.  

Markets on Alert

It’s difficult to grasp that just a few weeks ago, the fed funds futures market had priced the termin

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has a history of raising short-term interest rates until something “breaks.” Considering the Fed has raised rates from a near-zero level to 4.75% (upper bound) over the course of only one year, it was almost a near certainty this time would be no different. Recent bank failures suggest things are indeed starting to break. However, we don’t think we’re on the brink of a full-blown crisis, as market indicators we follow suggest contagion risks are still currently low. And while we don’t think a full-blown crisis is imminent, financial stability risks have clearly increased, which makes a p