• Small businesses, considered the backbone of the economy, are shrinking hiring plans. Hiring intentions among small businesses declined in March, implying that upcoming job reports will likely be lackluster.

• Firms are hunkering down as virtually no firms have plans to expand business operations. In fact, the number of firms reporting any expansion plans is the lowest since early 2009 when the economy was in the depths of the Great Financial Crisis.

• Small businesses are reporting more difficult access to credit. The percent reporting tighter credit is the highest since 2012 as lending institutions tighten u

The commercial real estate (CRE) market has recently captured the spotlight after being flagged as the next potential shoe to drop following last month’s banking turmoil. While rising rates have weighed on financing costs and the recent bank failures will make lending more restrictive, the post-pandemic world has produced structural changes that will likely weigh on the sector, especially within the retail and office segments. Banks, especially smaller cap regionals, are most exposed to CRE if credit cracks continue to widen.  

Background 

The troubles brewing in the CRE market have percolated since the

Today marks the six-month anniversary from the October 12, 2022 low in the S&P 500. Since the 25.4% drop in the index from January 3, 2022 through that day in October (is it me or do bear markets often end in October), the S&P 500 has rallied 15.1%, as shown in the accompanying table. That sounds pretty good, right? Well, it’s not, based on history.

The table below shows the average gain for the S&P 500 six months off the bear market low is 25%. So this bull market, which isn’t officially a bull market because the index has not yet achieved a 20% gain, would be one of the weakest. In fact, of the 17 bear m

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has raised short-term interest rates at the most aggressive pace since the 1980s in an effort to bring down the highest inflationary pressures in more than 40 years. Certainly, the main motivation behind these aggressive rate hikes is to realign the supply/demand imbalances that create inflationary pressures. But, the Fed is also trying to ensure that inflation expectations don’t become problematic as well. Inflation expectations are simply the rate at which consumers and/or businesses expect prices to rise in the future. They matter because actual inflation depends, in part, on what consumers expect it to be. If