Investors often talk about how earnings drive stock prices. But that begs the question how so many strategists and pundits expect earnings to fall in 2023 and stocks to rise? That’s our view in LPL Research.

Let’s look at the histories of earnings growth and price performance for the S&P 500 Index on a scatterplot graph to see how often this dynamic has occurred. The LPL Chart of the Day below shows S&P 500 performance on the vertical axis and S&P 500 earnings growth on the horizontal axis.

You can see in the chart that in years when earnings fall, found on the left side of the g

Fourth quarter earnings season is underway and probably won’t bring much good news. Lackluster global growth, ongoing profit margin pressures from inflation, and negative currency impacts are likely to translate into a year-over-year decline in S&P 500 Index earnings for the quarter. As always, guidance matters more as market participants look forward. The key question coming into this earnings season is whether the pessimism surrounding 2023 earnings has gone too far. 

A Number of Headwinds

As was the case last quarter, corporate America faces several stiff headwinds this earnings season. These headwinds&mda

We believe accountability and modesty are among the keys to success in this business. In striving for those qualities, LPL Research has a tradition of starting off a new year with a lessons learned commentary. We got some things wrong last year, no doubt. But those who don’t learn from their mistakes are doomed to repeat them. Here are some of our lessons learned from 2022. As you might imagine, inflation and the Federal Reserve are common themes throughout. 

Lessons Learned: Economic Forecasts

The Fed’s bark was as bad as its bite!

Investors have been carefully

2022 was a dizzying year as markets and the global economy continued to find itself out of balance due to the still present aftereffects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the policy response to it. If 2022 was about recognizing imbalances that had built in the economy and starting to address them, we believe 2023 will be about setting ourselves up for what comes next as the economy and markets find their way back to steadier ground. The process of finding balance may continue to be challenging and we may even see a recession, but underlying fundamentals could create opportunities in stock and bond markets that were difficult to find in 2022.

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