“Sell in May and go away” is probably the most widely cited stock market cliché in history. Every year a barrage of Wall Street commentaries, media stories, and investor questions flood in about the popular stock market adage. In this week’s Weekly Market Commentary, we tackle this commonly cited seasonal pattern and why it might not play out this year, similar to recent years.

The Worst Six Months of The Year

“Sell in May and go away” is the seasonal stock market pattern in which the six months from May through October are historically weak for stocks, with many investors believing that

LPL Research reduced U.S. and global GDP forecasts due to Russian commodity disruptions, elevated inflation dynamics, and higher borrowing costs. Still, we expect the U.S. economy to grow 2.7-3.2% in 2022, supported by business investment and consumer services spending in the latter half of this year. Forecasts for GDP growth in developed economies excluding the U.S. and emerging markets were also  reduced this month to 2.5–3% and 3.8–4.3% respectively, bringing the LPL Research global GDP growth forecast down about one percentage point to 3–3.5%.

Tale Of Two Halves

This year, many aspects of the econ

One of the biggest stories over the past few weeks has been the inversion of various points on the U.S. Treasury yield curve. The more well-known 2-year/10-year yield curve spread inverted on April 1, 2022 for the first time since 2019, while the 5-year/30-year inverted for the first time since 2006 on March 28.

What is a yield curve? The yield curve plots the yield of different maturity bonds, usually Treasuries. In normal times, a longer dated bond should have a higher yield than a shorter dated bond. Historically, after key parts of the yield curve invert, the economy eventually has moved into a recession. This is why these sign

As the Final Four NCAA Basketball Tournament rolls on in New Orleans, we continue our tradition of picking a stock market final four. We have identified our four key factors for the stock market outlook: 1) Consumer spending, 2) Earnings, 3) Interest rates, and 4) Inflation. We also celebrate last year’s winner: COVID-19 vaccines. Below we discuss these four factors, how they may influence markets this year, and pick our winner. Good luck to Kansas and North Carolina in tonight’s final.

Factor #1: Consumer Spending

Consumer spending dynamics will likely play a key role for investors this year. Goin