We currently expect the U.S. economy to grow 3.7% in 2022. The risks are to the downside since the Fed may err on tightening too fast, the recent commodity spike may trickle down to the U.S. consumer, and supply and demand imbalances may last longer than expected. This forecast is lowered from our previous 4-4.5% range originally published in Outlook 2022: Passing the Baton. The rest of this commentary explains the overall themes supporting the forecast.  

From One Risk to Another

The U.S. economy grew 5.7% in 2021, exhibiting strength after an unprecedented global pandemic, but as the economy marched into 2022, t

Good riddance to February. It was another negative month for stocks, but the clear headline was Russia invading Ukraine and the potential impacts that would have on the global economy and stock market.

First things first, this means the first two months of 2022 have been in the red for the S&P 500 Index. “Seeing the first two months of a new year in the red isn’t a great feeling, but the good news is lately it hasn’t been a major warning sign,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “The first two months of 2016 and 2020 were both negative, but stocks were able to claw back

After weeks of intense multilateral diplomacy, the U.S., Canada, the European Union, and the U.K. unleashed powerful economic sanctions against Russia over the weekend that have sent its economy reeling. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the Russian ruble has collapsed in response to the economic pressure, just one sign that the sanctions are working.

“The impact of the sanctions has been both immediate and dramatic, and the pressure will only increase over time,” said LPL Financial Asset Allocation Strategist Barry Gilbert. “There may be some broader economic damage from the conflict via more protracted inf

With inflationary pressures running higher than many central bankers are comfortable with, calls for interest rate hikes have become louder. A number of important central bank meetings are set to take place in March including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, and the Reserve Bank of Australia, to name a few. As such, March could be an important month for monetary policy shifts.  

The COVID-19 pandemic was an unprecedented shock across the global economy. But the economic damage was met with an extraordinary global monetary response with central banks cutting rates to near zero