Inflation and economic growth are key drivers of long-term rates, and rising rates can lead to higher borrowing costs for individuals and businesses, potentially impacting consumer spending and profit margins for businesses. Given the recent market v

U.S. stocks and bonds were hit by inflation concerns over the past week, but what is the economic data telling us? A barrage of U.S. economic data was released over the past two weeks, including major reports such as fourth quarter gross domestic pro

The U.S. dollar was in the news recently after comments from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi, and President Trump created volatility in the world’s reserve currency. Mnuchin indicated that a weak dollar

Beige Book Suggests Continued Moderate Economic Growth

The latest edition of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Beige Book, released Wednesday, January 17, 2018, continued to deliver a positive view of the U.S. economy. The Beige Book is a qualitat

Global economic growth exceeded expectations in 2017, and we expect another strong year in 2018. The Citi Global Economic Surprise Index, which was well above zero for most of the second half of 2017, signaled that global economic data was exceeding

2017 was an impressive year for equities, as many countries closed out the year at new all-time highs. The fixed income markets also responded favorably, as demand for both sovereign and corporate bonds remained strong with inflationary pressures sti

After more than a year of political posturing and investor anticipation, Congress finally approved a $1.5 trillion tax cut, the most sweeping U.S. fiscal overhaul since 1986. The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was signed into law by President Trump last

With the end of the year fast approaching, ‘tis the season for reflection on forecasts past and the sharing of forecasts future. We do not have an award for “Forecast of the Year,” but if we did, in 2017 it would go to the Federal R

Expect Better Growth Worldwide

We look for the global economy to expand at a healthy rate of about 3.7% in 2018 thanks to an improved overall policy, economic, and investment environment across developed and emerging markets [Figure 1].

Productivity for the third quarter of 2017 rose 3.0%, the largest one quarter increase since the third quarter of 2014 and over double the average quarterly growth rate since the start of 2009. This surge is significant, as a lack of productivity gro