In a recent equity strategy publication (ask your LPL advisor for the latest Equity Strategy Insights publication if interested), we identified potential sector winners and losers under various tariff scenarios. During the high tariff, high trade uncertainty regime (we called it phase one), we identified consumer staples, real estate, utilities, and gold as potential winners. Well, that phase may be behind us.

For the low tariff, trade clarity regime, or phase two, we identified communication services, consumer discretionary, industrials, and technology as potential winners, with communication services as our preference. Now that

Highlights:

• The temporary trade deal with China paused reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. Details are still emerging.

• The U.S. effective tariff rate is down to 13.1% from 22.8%, according to Fitch Ratings.

• In a separate report, annual consumer prices decelerated to 2.3%, the lowest since early 2021.

• The release of tension on trades proved a positive catalyst for investors, but the fog has not fully cleared.

“Lake Geneva added great equanimity to what was a very positive process.” – Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent

Appearing before the press, Bessent rep

As most of the large cap homebuilders have reported quarterly earnings, we think it’s a good time to check in on the industry, and whether the sell-off fully reflects the near-term headwinds they are facing. The “Big 4” S&P 500 Homebuilding Index (D.R. Horton (DHI), Lennar Corp (LEN), PulteGroup Inc. (PHM), and NVR Inc. (NVR)) is down 34% from its October 2024 peak and 11% year to date (YTD); relative to the S&P 500, which is down 3.8% and 6.2% over the same periods, respectively. Earnings call commentary from management teams over the past few weeks has provided investors with a view into the macroeconomic uncertain

Spring break came and went, and market watchers will soon turn their calendars and put April in the history books. This month, U.S. stocks experienced record trading volume, historic intra-day price swings, and widespread technical damage as a storm of uncertainty fueled a sharp equity market sell-off. Nonetheless, stocks held tough. At Monday’s closing bell with two trading sessions remaining this month, the S&P 500 was only 1.5% below where it began in April, clawing back a month-to-date decline that reached as deep as 11.5%.

Historically, April is one of the top three performing months on the calendar, alongside Nove