Private markets benefited enormously from the post-Great Financial Crisis era of ultralow interest rates that stretched through much of the 2010s and into the early 2020s. Amid regulatory change and muted returns in traditional fixed income during this time, investors were increasingly pushed into alternative areas of capital markets in search of yield. Private credit, in particular, emerged as a favored destination for institutional capital, including pensions, endowments, and insurers. The sheer volume of capital entering the space created competitive pressures that, in hindsight, were distinctly late cycle. Spreads compressed, underwriting

Early in my career, during a particularly challenging market environment, a mentor remarked that there are always opportunities — you simply have to look for them. That observation has remained a key tenet of my investment philosophy, particularly during periods of increased volatility.

Market sell-offs are disruptive and often heighten investor uncertainty. We have recently experienced one of those periods because of the ongoing war in the Middle East. Oil prices have surged and the S&P 500, at its March lows, has declined 9% from its all-time high set in February.

But improved market fundamentals might be

With March and the first quarter (Q1) behind us, we conducted a deep dive into exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows over the month and year-to-date (YTD) periods. Flows measure the net movement of cash into and out of investment vehicles, such as mutual funds and ETFs. We analyzed flows to gain insight on investor demand and sentiment surrounding asset classes, sectors, and other segments of markets.

Broad Asset Class Flows

Global markets broadly sold off in March as mixed messaging around the escalating Iran war, coupled with the absence of a clear diplomatic off‑ramp and surging energy prices, reinforced risk‑off sentiment

As strikes on Iran continue and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, it’s clearly too early for market watchers to stop thinking about geopolitical risk. As discussed in recent commentaries but worth repeating, history shows stocks often recover quickly from wars and other military engagements, especially when economies are resilient and earnings fundamentals remain strong. Improved valuations, the strong earnings outlook, and a still-normal level of volatility suggest the risk ‑ reward backdrop for stocks is getting more favorable. That said, we don’t have market capitulation signals flashing (washed-out selling), n