Since the start of the war with Iran, investor attention has understandably centered on crude oil. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz removed roughly 15 million barrels of crude per day from the supply chain, representing nearly 20% of global supply, according to the International Energy Agency. Combined with damage to regional energy infrastructure, the resulting supply shock has pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel and sent inflationary waves through the global economy.

Tanker traffic through the Strait has recently rebounded toward prewar levels. However, continued attacks on vessels and energy infrastructure, a

Bank lending rarely commands the attention that payrolls, inflation, or consumer spending do. But it helps determine how much momentum the economy can sustain. Commercial and industrial (C&I) loans, the workhorse of corporate finance, pay for everything from working capital to machinery and software. When banks are willing to lend and companies are eager to borrow, it suggests executives see enough opportunity ahead to put money to work.

Banks Aren’t Pulling Back

Right now, that is what the data show. In the Federal Reserve's latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, larger banks left standards for C&I lo

Every time rates jump, the headlines follow the same script: bonds got hit. On a statement, they did. But that framing confuses two very different activities. Trading bonds is about where prices go next. Investing in bonds is about building a portfolio that pays you income for as long as possible. For investors, the price move is the least important number on the page.

Take a five-year bond yielding 4.5%. Its price sensitivity to rates, also known as duration, is roughly 4.4, so a one percentage point rise in yields knocks about 4.4% off its value. Now compare that to what it pays: 4.5% per year, every year, on average. One year

The U.S. economy is handing investors a muddled picture. Housing is stuck, hiring is lopsided, and households feel worse than the jobs data suggest. Add a string of geopolitical shocks and a Federal Reserve (Fed) under new leadership still establishing its reaction function, and the signals markets rely on are harder to read. Investors will have to adjust to this market, where clarity is scarce.

Housing Stays Stuck

Start with housing, where softer demand for new homes should push the median price lower still, especially as mortgage rates climb. The median price of new single-family homes has been sliding. Even so, it remains