The bull market appears poised to extend its run in 2026, fueled by ongoing enthusiasm around AI and further easing of monetary policy from the Federal Reserve (Fed). However, with valuations running high and midterm election years often bringing more volatility, gains may be more tempered in 2026. LPL Research suggests investors maintain current allocations near long-term targets and stay patient for pullbacks to selectively increase equity exposures. Here we feature LPL Research’s stock market for 2026, taken from our Outlook 2026: The Policy Engine.

LPL Research 2026 Stock Market Outlook 

A strong 2025 does no

On Sunday afternoon, President Trump told reporters that he knew who he was going to officially pick to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair when Powell’s term expires in May 2026. While the formal announcement hasn’t been made, the favorite to take over the job, pending congressional approval, is current White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. Market reaction has been relatively muted, with the Treasury yield curve steepening as short-term yields fell on expectations of more aggressive rate cuts, while inflation break evens widened marginally, reflecting mild concern that policy accommodation

In our Weekly Market Commentary on November 17, we previewed our Outlook 2026 publication, due out on December 9. We highlighted several keys for markets next year, covering the U.S. economy, stocks, and bonds. This week, we broaden our preview and tease some other factors investors will want to consider when thinking about investing in 2026.  

Quick Recap 

First, here’s a summary of the keys to 2026 that we covered in our previous Outlook 2026 teaser on the U.S. economy, stocks, and bonds:

• No recession. In the absence of an economic contraction, stocks have historically delivered gains. LPL R

With just 24 trading days left in 2025 and the S&P 500 up about 14%, a strong year for stocks appears highly likely. If you are skeptical, consider that we’re coming out of one of the best earnings seasons in years by the numbers, the fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) that kicks in after New Year’s is fast approaching, and the holidays are typically favorable for stocks from a seasonal perspective.

Of course, every year is different, but one element of the path for stocks this year that is quite common is the fact that stocks suffered a correction on the way to strong gains. As you can se