August delivered the loudest bond market narrative in years, and almost none of it survived contact with the price action. Total public debt crossed $40 trillion on August 18. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 5.33% intraweek, a level last seen in 2007. The move was global, with the German 10-year at 3.35% and the Japanese 10-year near 2.89%, both at, or near multi-decade highs. The federal deficit is tracking north of $2 trillion. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent intervened with an expanded buyback program. A new Fed chair delivered his first Jackson Hole keynote. Commentators reached, predictably, for bond vigilantes, buyers' stri

In last week’s Beyond the Numbers, we made the case that free cash flow deserves a prominent place in investors’ valuation toolkits. Earnings can provide a useful measure of profitability, but free cash flow (FCF) gets closer to the central economic question: How much cash does a business generate after funding the investments required to operate and grow?

Capital requirements are rising alongside the cost of capital, and investors are paying closer attention to whether reported growth is translating into cash that ultimately accrues to owners. Our analysis found that FCF yield has historically been a more effective v

Much of the market's attention in recent weeks has centered on the sharp moves in long-term U.S. Treasury yields. Rising term premiums, concerns about debt issuance, and questions around the sustainability of fiscal policy have all helped drive volatility across the long end of the curve. But rising long-term yields are not just a U.S. story. Across the Atlantic, France is once again showing signs of becoming a focal point for sovereign bond investors.

One of the clearest signals is coming from the bond market itself. The spread between French and German 10-year government bond yields has widened recently and is now at levels

Stocks have enjoyed a powerful run off the spring lows and have largely shrugged off concerns around growth, inflation, higher interest rates, the effects of artificial intelligence (AI), geopolitics, and policy uncertainty. As the calendar turns to September, however, they are entering what has historically been, from a seasonality perspective, the most challenging month of the year for equities.

So why does seasonality exist at all? A handful of recurring, calendar-driven behaviors tend to leave a footprint on returns: tax-related selling, mutual fund fiscal year-ends, corporate buyback windows, summer liquidity lulls, and the