As we mentioned in our recent Midyear 2025 Outlook: Pragmatic Optimism, Measured Expectations, we expect bond market action to continue to swing between concerns over slowing economic data (lower yields) and larger debt/deficit dynamics (higher yields). But according to recent analysis from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), tariff revenue could meaningfully impact both sides of the bond market pendulum, which on net, could be beneficial to the Treasury market.

As noted by the CBO, total government outlays for 2025 are roughly $7 trillion, with 2025 revenue equal to around $5.2 trillion, resulting in a budget deficit of nearly

Last week, some of the largest U.S. retailers reported earnings for the second quarter (Q2). Retail earnings offer valuable insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy and consumer behavior. Results across retailers this quarter were generally mixed as consumers continued to navigate tariff uncertainty, delay major purchases, and shift spending to other categories. We highlight some of the key retailers’ earnings and themes that impacted some retailers more than others.

Retail Earnings Come in Mixed, with Discount Retailers Outpacing Higher-End Retailers.

• Source: LPL Research, FactSet, 08/22/25
• Disclosure

Off the market’s April 8 lows, small cap growth stocks, as measured by the Russell 2000 Growth Index have advanced 34.2%.¹ While that sizable return is nothing to sneeze at, large cap growth stocks, as measured by the Russell 1000 Growth Index advanced 40.5% over the same period.² Passively investing in small growth stocks has delivered underwhelming results compared to other equity investment styles for quite some time. The chart below shows that small growth stocks delivered less than half the total return of large growth stocks over the last 10 years.

Small Growth (Russell 2000 Growth) Total Return Versus Large Growth (R

GLP-1s (such as Ozempic and Wegovy) are revolutionary drugs that help patients control diabetes and lose weight by slowing the pace of digestion and increasing how full patients feel after eating. Despite GLP-1 manufacturers underperforming since mid-2024 due to outsized near-term expectations and competition from low-cost compounded therapies, we expect usage of these drugs will continue to grow. However, our focus today is not on the manufacturers themselves, but on how these drugs are shifting consumer preferences and the impact on consumer-facing industries.

In survey data collected by Bloomberg, respondents confirmed that ri