Recently, the LPL Research team published the 2025 Midyear Outlook: Pragmatic Optimism, Measured Expectations. A check-in on where the markets have been and where they seem to be headed, the report is a great guide to help steer personal portfolios. If you haven’t read it yet in its entirety, take a minute to tap into some of the key takeaways.

Economy

In the second half of the year, the delayed effects of trade policy will begin to take a more noticeable toll on the economy, resulting in slower growth, weakening labor demand, and a modest uptick in inflation. These emerging challenges will create a more complex landsc

As we enter the second half of 2025, investors face a complex and evolving landscape shaped by shifting trade policies, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical uncertainty.

A Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde Bond Market

Within the fixed income markets, a tug-of-war has unfolded between two opposing forces, with budget deficits and increased debt loads weighing on Treasury prices, but potential economic weakness could drive yields lower (prices higher). Moreover, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is in a tough spot with inflationary pressures expected to remain above the Fed’s 2% target, so the central bank may need to be on hold until

Additional content provided by Dr. Jeffrey Roach, Chief Economist.

As we enter the second half of 2025, investors face a complex and evolving landscape shaped by shifting trade policies, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical uncertainty.

Economy Showing Some Signs of Strain

The U.S. economy is showing signs of strain from delayed trade policy impacts, with softening labor demand and a modest reacceleration in inflation. While the Federal Reserve (Fed) remains cautious, the path forward is clouded by policy ambiguity and global economic crosscurrents. Despite these headwinds, LPL Research maintains a cautiousl

Gold has climbed nearly 80% over the past three years, with most observers crediting central bank accumulation as the primary driver — and they're not wrong. For three consecutive years, global central banks have added over 1,000 metric tons of gold to their reserves. That's a huge jump when you consider annual central bank gold demand averaged just 473 metric tons from 2010 to 2021.

While central bank buying is evident, the more intriguing question is why they’re purchasing gold at such an accelerated pace. From 2009 to 2020, gold’s price generally tracked real interest rates — falling rates fuele